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Extreme Weather, El Niño 2026

Sofar Ocean
Season Overview:

NOAA's Climate Prediction Center issued an El Niño Advisory in June 2026, confirming El Niño conditions are present in the tropical Pacific and forecast to strengthen into the Northern Hemisphere winter. The 2026 Pacific typhoon season has been active by historical standards, with multiple Category 4 and 5 storms developing in rapid succession, including Super Typhoon Sinlaku in April and Super Typhoon Bavi in July.

Sofar Ocean's global network of Spotters makes direct, real-time observations of ocean conditions in the path of these storms as they develop. This ground truth data, significant wave height and barometric pressure recorded directly from the ocean surface, enhances Sofar's own marine weather forecasting and supports maritime operators, coastal communities, and government agencies working to understand, predict, and prepare for the high sea states these storms generate.

This page will track Spotter observations across the 2026 El Niño storm season as they occur.

Typhoon Bavi, SPOT-32034C:

Since last Thursday, Typhoon Bavi has intensified from tropical storm to Category 5 "super typhoon" as it tracks through the West Pacific, amid an intensifying El Niño season. Guam, Rota, Tinian, and Saipan were placed under typhoon warnings over the weekend as sustained winds climbed to 282 km/h.

320 km ahead of Bavi's leading edge, our Spotter is making direct, real-time observations of the extreme conditions the storm is generating with significant wave heights already over 6 meters.

Ground truth data like this, captured by Sofar Ocean's Spotter network, sharpens our maritime weather forecast, giving maritime operators and coastal planners a clearer picture as high sea states build.

Preparing Operations for a Higher-Volatility Season:

As El Niño conditions built through June, Sofar Ocean hosted a briefing for maritime ops teams, voyage planners, and commercial managers on what an intensifying El Niño season means for trade lane risk. Presented by Science Engagement Lead Sarah Ruth Merrigan, PhD and Routing Specialist Jessica Topal, the session covered which corridors face the most exposure this season, including the Panama Canal, along with the pre-season checks and decision triggers ops teams should have in place.

The webinar explored how real-time ocean observations from Sofar's Spotter network improve marine weather forecast accuracy, and how that data feeds into Wayfinder's voyage optimization to help operators reduce delays, deviations, and cargo risk.

Super Typhoon Sinlaku, Northern Mariana Islands:

In April, Super Typhoon Sinlaku made a direct pass through the Northern Mariana Islands as a Category 5 storm, an early sign of the intensity this El Niño season would bring to the West Pacific.

Pacific Coastal Research & Planning (PCRP) deployed a Spotter from traditional Chamorro proas and Carolinian canoes in coastal waters around the island where offshore buoys could not measure. When Sinlaku's eye passed directly overhead, a Spotter recorded the storm from the inside, capturing a drop in barometric pressure down to 922 mb.

The Spotter provided valuable real-time data while highlighting the importance of community-owned data infrastructure for coastal resilience and decision-making among island nations.

Explore Weather

Extreme Weather, El Niño 2026

July 6, 2026

Sofar tracks the 2026 El Niño storm season with real-time ocean data, storm updates, and forecasting insights.

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